Forecasting wheat production in Syria using ARIMA models
Abstract
The research aimed at an analytical study of the reality of wheat production in Syria during the period 1991-2022 and its development during that period, after analyzing the time series expressing the development of wheat production quantities, studying their stability, and then predicting production quantities using ARIMA models. Among the obtained results:
- The time series of wheat production in Syria during the period (1990-2021) is an unstable series due to the existence of a general trend.
- The model ARIMA (1,2,0) suitable for forecasting wheat production in Syria was reached. It is a model whose features are significant and its determination coefficient is strong (the model is effective). Through it, wheat production in Syria was predicted until 2025.
- Decrease in wheat production according to the proposed model, as the predicted production in 2025 reached 2050.64 thousand tons.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
-
The authors retain the copyright and grant the right to publish in the magazine for the first time with the transfer of the commercial right to Tishreen University Journal of Research and Scientific Studies - Economic and Legal Sciences
Under a CC BY- NC-SA 04 license that allows others to share the work with of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal. Authors can use a copy of their articles in their scientific activity, and on their scientific websites, provided that the place of publication is indicted in Tishreen University Journal of Research and Scientific Studies - Economic and Legal Sciences . The Readers have the right to send, print and subscribe to the initial version of the article, and the title of Tishreen University Journal of Research and Scientific Studies - Economic and Legal Sciences Publisher
-
journal uses a CC BY-NC-SA license which mean
You are free to:
- Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format
- Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material
- The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms.
-
Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
-
NonCommercial — You may not use the material for commercial purposes.
-
ShareAlike — If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same license as the original.
- No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.
