The Impact of the Economic Factor on Turkish-Iraqi Political Relations within the Framework of Interdependence Theory

Abstract

The study examines the nature of Turkish–Iraqi relations, which over the past two decades have been marked by sharp fluctuations between cooperation and conflict. The economic factor has played a pivotal role in shaping these relations, while at the same time deepening structural imbalances and producing patterns of constrained dependency. The research therefore aims to analyze the impact of the economic factor on the political relations between the two countries during the period 2003–2023, while testing the applicability of interdependence theory in explaining this interaction. The study employs a descriptive–analytical approach, relying on quantitative tools (trade and investment statistics) as well as qualitative methods (analysis of bilateral agreements and political frameworks). The findings reveal that economic interdependence between Iraq and Turkey has been asymmetrical, with Ankara exploiting its trade and investment superiority, along with water resources, as instruments of political leverage. Iraq, by contrast, has been unable to translate its oil wealth into balanced influence. The study further demonstrates that interdependence, instead of fostering stability, has exacerbated political and security tensions. It concludes that classical interdependence theory is insufficient to explain relations characterized by asymmetry, and calls for a reconsideration of its application. The study recommends that Iraq diversify its economic partnerships and strengthen international legal frameworks to ensure equitable resource-sharing.