Submission and Review of Research -Engineering Sciences Series

Using ARIMA Models to Predict Annual Rainfall Values in KASAB Station in Northwestern Syria During the period from 1960 to 2011

2025-07-17T10:20:32+00:00

The water sector in Syria faces a major challenge, as precipitation changes are associated with declining precipitation values due to climate changes. Rainfall is one of the difficult and complex elements of hydrological cycle, due to the numerous and overlapping meteorological factors that cause rainfall.

The research problem is that predicting rainfall amounts on the Syrian coast is generally undetermined. The research aims to predict the future amounts of annual rainfall by developing a statistical model based on time series analysis using the statistical software Minitab.

Data from 51 years of rainfall were used, with 43 years during the period from 1960 to 2011 for model developing, and eight years for testing. The most suitable model was found to be ARIMA(3,1,5), according to the Akaki criterion after conducting the required tests. The test results showed good performance accuracy. The ARIMA model (4,1,5) was adopted to predict annual rainfall values for the next twenty years.

An Experimental Study of Sequencing Batch Reactors (Sbrs) for Wastewater Treatment Under Local Conditions For Use in Irrigation

2025-08-18T08:43:53+00:00

The research is summarized in conducting a series of experiments on a laboratory model of a sequencing batch reactor (SBR) to verify its effectiveness in treating wastewater and its potential use for irrigation purposes.The research discusses the characteristics of wastewater and the risks of contamination,in addition to presenting the known methods of treatment. The research also includes a detailed presentation of sequencing batch reactors (SBRs), their design mechanism, and the calculation of the design parameters of the reactor under study based on the characteristics of the wastewater used in all stages of the test.The research methodology included the operation and steps followed to test the proposed reactor model under prevailing laboratory conditions.Samples were taken from the reactor over six consecutive days, and then the basic parameters necessary for evaluation were measured, namely: TSS, BOD5, nitrate, nitrite and phosphate. We have presented the results in special tables that allowed us to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method for wastewater treatment.The test results at the approved operating cycle times showed high effectiveness in removing BOD and TSS, while this effectiveness was lower in removing nitrate and phosphorus due to their already low values in the water undergoing treatment.Finally, an analytical reading of the results presented the conclusions, which allowed us to reach recommendations that we consider important to take into account in subsequent research in this field.

Water Harvesting and Flood Risk Mitigation in Baalbek-Hermel Using GIS(Case Study: Wadi al-Turkman Basin)

2025-07-20T10:29:51+00:00

The Baalbeck-Hermel region in Lebanon suffers from the issue of floods and floods, due to the presence of arid lands and degraded valleys that receive rainfall in a short time, forming torrential floods that destroy agricultural lands and villages, causing serious material and human damage.The research aims to harvest rainwater and prevent the risks of torrents and floods resulting from severe and sudden rainstorms in Wadi al-Turkman (Baalbek-Hermel region), to protect citizens and their property, protect the soil from erosion, store a quantity of water to water crops and natural vegetation, develop the region, and maintain a sustainable environment.This research made a preliminary estimate of the number and type of facilities, their locations, and quantities of works based on DEM topographic maps 3030m at a scale of 1/50000 using GIS software, and this estimate is subject to modification in the design study phase, depending on the field audit and the accuracy of the available data and data. The choice of stone or gabion walls is related to the building materials available at the site.

The research recommends planting forest trees and annual wild plants, establishing green barriers through appropriate agroforestry to stabilize the soil, and stopping logging for heating purposes.

Analyzing the Effect of Sustainable Environmental Practices on the Formation of Social Urban Spaces

2025-10-15T07:05:56+00:00

Contemporary cities are undergoing radical transformations in their planning and design patterns due to the environmental and social challenges arising from rapid urban expansion. In this context, environmental sustainability emerges as a comprehensive framework aimed at achieving a balance between development requirements and the preservation of natural resources for future generations.

Sustainable environmental practices play a significant role in shaping urban spaces and enhancing the social dimension, taking into account fundamental communal human needs. The development of social urban spaces is one of the most important global challenges and is linked to concepts related to the quality of urban spaces and environmental practices. Most countries and policymakers continuously work using analytical methodologies and approaches to assess the impact of these practices on urban spaces, aiming to produce results that reflect the social conditions of urban residents. This is achieved through various indicators and criteria that help identify the current situation and propose fundamental development solutions while monitoring progress amid rapid urban growth and expansion. The study highlights numerous global experiences with both positive and negative impacts of sustainable practices on the formation of social urban spaces.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Spectral Indices in Assessing Fire Severity Using Google Earth Engine: A Case Study of the Wildfires in Northern Rural Latakia, Syria (July 2025)

2025-10-12T07:44:41+00:00

This study aimed to assess forest fire severity in northern rural Latakia during July 2025 using five spectral indices: NBR, NBRT, NDVI, NDVIT, and VI6T, before and after the fires, and to relate them to climatic data (temperature and wind speed), utilizing Google Earth Engine for satellite image analysis. Results showed a decrease in mean index values post-fire, e.g., NBR dropped from 0.25 to 0.22 and NBRT from 0.05 to 0.03, reflecting fire impact. Thermal indices NDVIT, NBRT, and VI6T were more sensitive to fire than vegetation indices, especially in affected areas. Fires were mainly located in Qastal Ma‘af, Jabal Turkman, and Nab‘ al-Mar villages. NDVI and NDVIT estimated higher fire-affected areas in some regions due to drought influence. Evaluation results indicated NDVIT and NBRT achieved the highest overall accuracy (0.91) and kappa coefficient (0.82), highlighting their effectiveness. NDVI showed lower accuracy despite higher degraded area estimates. Degraded area estimates by NDVI and NDVIT reached ~21,959 ha (8%), exceeding the 20,000 ha reference by 9.8%, whereas NBR estimated 18,455 ha (7%), and NBRT and VI6T focused on severely burned areas (~13,867 ha, 5%). Correlation analysis indicated temperature was the main driver of fire spread (0.843 with NBR), while wind had less impact, confirming temperature as a key factor in fire dynamics in northern rural Latakia forests.

Effect of Mixing Ratio and the Addition Ration of Magnesium Oxide on the Properties of The Rigid Polyurethane Foam in Open Medium

2025-08-24T10:46:10+00:00

The quality of polyurethane foam products is affected by several factors, such as the mixing ratio of the polyurethane mixture and the proportion of additives. This study investigated the effect of varying the mixing ratio of polyol and isocyanate on the density of the final product, and monitored the changes in the overall shape of the cells with varying mixing ratios. The effect of the added percentage of magnesium oxide on the internal structure of the product (at each mixing ratio) was also studied, as was its density and compressive strength.

The results showed that high percentages of isocyanate (80%) are detrimental to the final product and make the structure rigid and lumpy. Increasing the percentage of polyol increases the cell dimensions, while balanced percentages of both allow for a structure with somewhat uniform cells. Experiments have shown that adding magnesium oxide increases the product height during foam formation and reduces the cell dimensions within the structure. However, it is associated with the formation of internal defects in the form of gaps that reduce the product density compared to pure polyurethane. The addition of magnesium oxide at a rate of (5%) at a mixing ratio of (60/40) achieved the highest compressive strength value.

Determining the Time Aspects to Activate the Dynamic Nature of Cadastral Data in the Syrian Cadastral System

2025-07-24T06:47:49+00:00

The cadastral system in Syria is one of the public sectors of the state that was developed to facilitate land management. Every day, a lot of cadastral transactions are completed, through which we face a big challenge that includes the spatial and temporal aspects in managing the Syrian cadastral system. Not knowing the time difference or the correct time of cadastral data leads to unexpected and unpredictable errors; therefore, the required temporal information must be studied correctly when designing cadastral data models.

This research mainly focuses on studying the temporal aspects of the Syrian cadastral system. Therefore, an overview of the Syrian cadastral system was presented, then it has been clarified the basic functions of time in cadastral systems and the temporal aspects in the Syrian cadastral system. After that, we discussed the dynamics of the cadastral system in Syria by studying the most important cadastral transactions that are achieved daily in the cadastral departments and the impact of that on the spatial and nonspatial data related to parcels in different time periods.

Using of Lime-Treated Recycled Concrete Aggregates (RCA) in the Design of Hot Mix Asphalt HMA

2025-08-12T11:29:58+00:00

The use of recycled concrete aggregates (RCA) in hot asphalt mixtures is one of the modern applications for these aggregates. Researches have shown that treating these aggregates with different techniques can significantly improve the performance of asphalt mixtures because it effects on the attached mortar layer, which is the main reason for decreased quality of the aggregates.

This research aims to study the performance of hot asphalt mixtures designed from recycled concrete aggregates (RCA) treated with 3% quick lime, with replacement ratios 0-25-50-75-100% of the nature coarse aggregate by untreated and treated RCAs .

The results of the research indicated that lime helped to improve the physical and mechanical properties of the recycled aggregates up to 50% , Marshall density of the mixtures was improved by 3% , also stability increased by 6-26% , while the optimum bitumen content required for the mixtures decreased up to 9% , which greatly enhances the possibility of using these aggregates in asphalt paving works.

Study of the Growth Rate of Rust Spots on Steel Surface Under the Effect of Low-Temperature Heating and Cooling in Different Media

2025-08-10T11:30:29+00:00

This research investigates the corrosion rate on the surface of steel samples exposed to low-temperature heating and cooled in two different media (freshwater and natural seawater).

The surface of steel samples were first cleaned with a steel brush and then heated to a temperature of 125℃. They were then immediately quenched in basins containing either freshwater or natural seawater for 1 minute. After cooling, the samples were kept in laboratory conditions to monitor surface changes using visual inspection and a microscope.

After Microscopic images were taken over specific time periods, the change in the area of a specific rust spot on the surface of each steel sample was calculated over time using MATLAB software, in order to determine the corrosion propagation rate.

The results showed an increase in the rate of growth of rust spots (corrosion rate) and a change in the color of rust spots formed on the steel surfaces that were heated and cooled in seawater, compared to those cooled in freshwater.

Studying the Effectiveness of Steel Frames Using Different Bracing Systems under Earthquake Loads by Nonlinear Static Analysis

2025-08-13T05:23:55+00:00

Traditional methods used in designing earthquake-resistant structures do not adequately account for performance levels and seismic risk. This has necessitated the development of alternative approaches that provide a more accurate representation of a structure's actual behavior during an earthquake. Performance-Based Engineering has emerged as a method that ensures precision and efficiency in the analysis, evaluation, and design processes. The significant drifts and displacements observed in steel frames require the application of strengthening techniques to control these displacements and ensure stability under lateral loads. Bracing has proven effective in enhancing performance by providing high stiffness and resistance while simultaneously reducing displacements. In this study, a three-dimensional analysis was conducted on two steel structures: Structure A (four stories) and Structure B (eight stories), both reinforced with four types of central bracing systems (X-bracing, V-bracing, IV-bracing, and Diagonal (D) bracing), using nonlinear static analysis. The results indicated that adding bracing significantly improved performance by increasing elastic stiffness, lateral stiffness, and resistance while reducing relative drifts and displacements. For structure A, Diagonal (D) bracing was identified as the most efficient pattern, offering the highest resistance, lowest drift, and superior elastic and lateral stiffness. For structure B, X-bracing proved to be the most resistant, exhibiting the least drift while providing high stiffness.

Modeling the Structural Behavior and Evaluating the Performance of Pavement Layers for Lattakia Airport Using the Finite Element Method

2025-09-08T09:09:47+00:00

The problems associated with flexible pavement deformation have been incompletely resolved for decades due to the difficulty of linking the properties of the pavement materials and pavement thicknesses, as well as the interrelationship between the various layers comprising them, particularly using traditional relationships and methods. However, over the past decades, mathematical methods, most notably the finite element method.

In this study, the pavement layers at Lattakia Airport were modeled and analyzed using Plaxis 2D software to investigate the impact of the large wheel loads generated by heavy aircraft wheels and the effects resulting from repeated application through the response and interaction of the pavement layers.

The results of modeling the flexible pavement layers on the eastern runway of Lattakia International Airport showed that they failed to receive modern aircraft such as the design aircraft B:747-400 due to the unacceptable value of the resulting subsidence 6.11 mm. Therefore, a new model was proposed with reinforcing the pavement layers with geogrid which reduces the subsidence in the pavement layers to 3.4 mm, reduces the stress affecting the pavement layers.

Evaluation of the Current Situation of Road Embankments Carried out on the Latakia-Aryha Road Site

2025-08-25T10:41:22+00:00

Road fills are an important element in the road and transportation system and may not receive enough attention in design and implementation alike, but if we review the foundations of fill design, we find that they are traditional and depend on the relationships of construction mechanics. However, in recent years, the design has begun to rely on engineering programs based on mathematical methods such as differential equations, finite differences, and finite elements (adopted in our research), which have provided more accurate solutions in the design of fills and predicting their behavior in the long term under the influence of dynamic loads and dead loads alike. The aim of this study is to evaluate the current status of three road backfills implemented on the Lattakia-Aryha highway, taking into account the properties of the materials involved in the formation (natural soil layers and backfill materials), in addition to the backfill engineering and groundwater conditions, and thus activating the joint work of all structural elements using the Finite Element Method (FEM) using the Plaxis 2D program. The backfills achieved acceptable safety factors, which were met by the most dangerous sliding surfaces, respectively: the first backfill with a minimum safety factor of 1.4909, the second backfill with a minimum safety factor of 1.5712, and the third backfill with a minimum safety factor of 1.9181.

Studying the Vehicle Parking and its Impact on Traffic in City Centers Case Study: Damascus City

2025-08-13T05:30:42+00:00

The aim of the research is to study the parking spaces and their impact on traffic movement in the streets located in the center of Damascus it is the place where most government departments and service buildings are concentrated. Therefore improving the traffic situation on these streets will have a significant impact on raising the level of service, increasing speed ,reducing delay time and reducing traffic congestion .

The study was conducted on three streets in the center of Damascus city by conducting field surveys of parking lots, conducting a questionnaire for a number of car owners, studying traffic congestion during peak periods, and determining the level of service on the studied roads.

The streets were divided into a number of sectors and the field method was used by Highway Capacity Manual (HCM2000) to determine the level of service and finally compare the results.

This study showed low values of parking utilization index and parking turnover on streets with random parking it also showed a low rate of traffic congestion and service levels in most sectors while they are high in the street where parking is paid ,this study emphasized the need to prevent unnecessary use for parking or long periods of use it without any purpose and prevent the random parking.

Analytical and Numerical Study of the Rock Slope Stability and Designing the Wire Mesh Systems for Rockfall Protection along the Slope

2025-09-09T05:37:40+00:00

This study investigates rock slope stability and the effectiveness of reinforcement using wire mesh and rock bolts through a combined theoretical and numerical approach. In the first phase, Slide 2D software was used to assess slope stability with weathered layers based on the Limit Equilibrium Method (LEM). The model was calibrated using data from a peer-reviewed study, incorporating rock properties according to the Hoek-Brown and Coulomb-Mohr criteria.

The second phase involved detailed modeling with Macro software to evaluate the effects of rock properties, weathering, and climate on slope behavior and their interaction with reinforcement systems. Five rock types were analyzed under varying climatic conditions and long-term effects over 100 years.

Results showed that weathering thickness varied significantly with rock type. In serpentine, it increased more than dolomite. Serpentine also required 5-meter-long rock bolts—double the length needed for dolomite—demonstrating the influence of weathering resistance on reinforcement design.