مدى ملائمة مؤشرZ-score لقياس الاستقرار المالي للمصارف السورية الخاصة التقليدية
Abstract
يهدف هذا البحث إلى دراسة مدى ملائمة مؤشر(Z-score) لقياس الاستقرار المالي للمصارف السورية التقليدية الخاصة, ولتحقيق هذا الهدف قامت الباحثة ببناء نموذج انحدار متعدد خلال الفترة الممتدة من الربع الأول2010 والربع الرابع 2014 باستخدام سلسلة زمنية مقطعية لمتغيرات الأداء المالشي المصرفي للمصارف السورية التقليدية الخاصة وتحليلها باستخدام التحليل الزمني القطاعي.(Panel Data Analyze) من أهم النتائج التي توصلت إليها الباحثة: • ملائمة مؤشر(Z-score) لقياس الاستقرار المالي للمصارف السورية الخاصة التقليدية. • تمتع جميع المصارف السورية الخاصة التقليدية بالاستقرار المالي. • وجود علاقة طردية معنوية بين كل من مؤشر الاستقرار(Z-score) والقيمة الدفترية للسهم نسبة لقيمته السوقية(BM) وكفاية رأس المال المصرفي(Adec). • وجود علاقة عكسية معنوية بين كل من مؤشر الاستقرار(Z-score) ومؤشر جودة المحفظة المصرفية (QUAL) ونسبة توظيف الودائع(NET/DEP). • عدم وجود علاقة معنوية بين مؤشر الاستقرار(Z-score) وكل من مؤشرات الأداء المصرفي الأساسية: معدل التغطية(Cov), نسبة السيولة(LIQ) والربحية الممثلة بنسبة العائد على حقوق الملكية المعدل بأرباح/خسائر القطع البنيوي.(Roe$) This paper aimed to study The suitability of (Z-score) index to measure banking financial stability of Syrian Private Traditional Banks, To achieve this purpose, the researcher built a model during the period from Q1-2010 to Q4-2014,using Cross-Sectional series of Banking financial performance variables and analyzing it using Panel Data Analyze. The main results are: • The suitability of (Z-Score) index to measure financial stability of Syrian Traditional Private Banks. • The financial stability of all Syrian Traditional Private Banks. • The significant positive relation between Book to market value(BM), Capital Adequacy (Adec) and financial stability index (Z-Score). • The significant negative relation between Quality of loan portfolio (QUAL), Deposit employment (NET/DEP) and financial stability index (Z-Score). • The absence of significant relation between(Z-Score) and banking performance ratios: Cover ratio(COV), bank's Liquidity (LIQ), and profitability measured by the ratio of Adjusted Return on Equity (Roe$).Downloads
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