Latakia University (formerly Tishreen)Journal for Research and Scientific Studies - Economic and Legal Sciences Series
The Impact of Capital Structure on the Growth of Islamic Banks Operating in Syria
This study aims to examine the effect of capital structure on the growth of Islamic banks operating in Syria from 2011 to 2023. The sample consisted of three Islamic banks. The independent variable represents capital structure, expressed through internal financing measured by the ratio of total equity to total assets, and external financing measured by the ratio of total deposits to total assets. The dependent variable represents banking growth, measured by total asset growth. The study included control variables: profitability, liquidity, inflation rate, and the political stability index. To achieve the research objective, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model using the Pooled Mean Group estimator (PMG/ARDL) was used to test cointegration relationships among the variables, based on quarterly panel data, following unit root tests to ensure stationarity of all series. The results revealed a statistically significant and negative effect of both internal and external financing on the growth of Islamic banks. In light of these findings, the study recommends enhancing equity utilization and deposit investment efficiency, while reducing idle liquidity, to support banking growth.
Copyright (c) 2026 Latakia University (formerly Tishreen)Journal for Research and Scientific Studies - Economic and Legal Sciences Series
The Impact of Earnings Quality in stock Returns: An Empirical Study on Banks Listed on the Damascus Securities Exchange (DSE).
This study aims to analyze the impact of earnings quality in stock returns in banks listed on the Damascus Securities Exchange, using a sample of 13 banks during the period 2016–2023. Earnings quality was measured using two indicators: accruals quality and earnings persistence, while stock returns were measured based on price changes in the market value of shares. Bank size was used as a control variable, represented by the natural logarithm of total assets. The relationship between the variables was tested using a simple regression model. The results indicated that earnings quality has no statistically significant effect on stock returns, in addition to a negative relationship between bank size and stock returns when accruals quality is used as a measure of earnings quality. The study also found a negative relationship between earnings quality—when measured by persistence—and stock returns, while bank size showed no significant effect on stock returns.
Impact of Working Capital Management on Market Value in Conventional Banks: Evidence from Damascus Securities Exchange
This study investigates the impact of working capital management – WCM on equity market value for a sample of 11 conventional banks listed on the Damascus Securities Exchange (2009–2023). The methodology was applied to panel data for 165 observations using Pooled OLS enhanced by robust Arellano and Driscoll–Kraay standard errors to control for autocorrelation and cross-sectional dependence. Results reveal a pricing mechanism that rewarded conservative WCM policies; the Cash Holding Ratio (CHR) showed a positive impact on market value at the 5% significance level, while excessive credit expansion (LDR) appeared with a significant negative effect. Bank size growth <!-- [if gte msEquation 12]><m:oMath><m:r>Δln</m:r><m:d><m:dPr><m:ctrlPr></m:ctrlPr></m:dPr><m:e><m:r>TA</m:r></m:e></m:d></m:oMath><![endif]--> also emerged as a structural driver of valuation. Conversely, the Net Working Capital to Total Assets ratio (NWCTA) showed a significant positive effect consistent with robustness tests, but its statistical significance was sensitive to the error correction method. However, the inclusion of time-fixed effects indicated that the ability of working capital management indicators to explain variance declined against the dominance of common systemic shocks during years of severe instability.
The extent to which the Xtra Go application embodies cloud computing characteristics (Content Analysis of the Official Website as a Case Study)
This study aims to evaluate the extent to which the Xtra Go application embodies cloud computing characteristics according to the NIST framework. To achieve this objective, a descriptive case study approach was adopted. An analysis card was developed based on the five essential characteristics of cloud computing and applied to the official website of the application as a reliable source of information. The indicators were classified using a three level scale that reflects full representation, partial representation, and absence, while descriptive statistics were employed to provide a quantitative picture of the extent to which each characteristic is embodied. The findings revealed that some characteristics were fully represented, others partially represented, while the measured service characteristic was absent, indicating variation in the level of adherence to cloud computing features. These results provide a preliminary foundation for evaluating cloud applications in the future, supporting the development of more accurate and comprehensive assessment tools. Hence, the importance of this study lies in presenting an applied approach based on content analysis instead of field data, contributing to bridging the knowledge gap between theory and practical application.
The Impact of External Debt on Gross Domestic Product ) An Econometric Study on Selected MENA Countries(
This study aimed to analyze the impact of external debt on gross domestic product (GDP) in four selected countries from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, namely Egypt, Turkey, Morocco, and Jordan, over the period (2000–2022). Foreign direct investment (FDI) was also included as a control variable to account for external capital flows and to enhance the robustness of the estimated model. The study employed the Panel CS-ARDL methodology within the framework of the Unrestricted Error Correction Model (UECM). The Pesaran CD test indicated the presence of strong cross-sectional dependence among the sample countries, while second-generation unit root tests (CIPS) revealed mixed orders of integration, with variables being either level-stationary or integrated of order one. The empirical results confirmed the existence of a statistically significant long-run equilibrium relationship (cointegration), with an error correction coefficient estimated at (-0.441). The findings further demonstrated that external debt exerts a positive effect on GDP in both the short and long run, while foreign direct investment plays a complementary and vital role in promoting economic growth. In light of these findings, the study provides policy recommendations concerning the Syrian economy in the post-war period.
Analysis of the Impact of Selected Economic and Social Factors on Students’ Educational Performance Using Discriminant Analysis A Field Study in Schools of Tartous Governorate
The study aimed to analyze the effect of classroom density, family size, and monthly household income on the educational performance of lower and upper secondary students in Tartous Governorate. The sample included 150 male and female students, and performance was classified into three levels: acceptable, good, and excellent. The study adopted a quantitative descriptive approach. Data were collected through a field questionnaire and analyzed in SPSS27 using multiple linear discriminant analysis. The results showed clear differences among educational performance groups in the examined variables. Higher classroom density was associated with lower performance, indicating that an increase in the number of students per classroom reduces opportunities for individual attention and negatively affects academic achievement. The findings also showed that family size did not have a simple linear relationship with educational performance, but rather emerged as a variable that differentiated among groups to varying degrees. Monthly household income, however, did not show a direct positive relationship with academic excellence, reflecting the limited explanatory value of this variable in its nominal form under current economic conditions.
Reconstruction strategies in Syria "Priorities and obstacles"
After years of war, Syria faces a complex reality that necessitates a comprehensive approach to reconstruction. The task is no longer limited to repairing buildings and infrastructure; it has become essential to rebuilding people, society, and the state. Therefore, this study aims to identify reconstruction strategies in Syria by focusing on key intervention priorities and understanding the context surrounding the construction and development process. The main priorities include rehabilitating vital infrastructure, particularly the energy, water, and housing sectors, as well as revitalizing productive sectors and generating employment opportunities. The study also emphasizes the importance of investing in human capital, achieving political and economic stability, and strengthening the role of public institutions in managing the reconstruction process. However, these strategies face a number of obstacles, most notably the limited financial resources to date, weak institutional and regulatory frameworks, and ongoing political and security challenges. Furthermore, regional and social disparities resulting from the conflict constitute an additional factor that limits the effectiveness of implemented policies. The study concludes that the success of reconstruction in Syria hinges on adopting a long-term, integrated vision based on good governance, phased planning, and linking reconstruction to comprehensive development goals.
The Effect Of Board Characteristics On The Disclosure Of Sustainable Development Dimensions: An Empirical Study On A Sample Of Companies Listed In Arab Financial Markets.
This study aimed to examine the impact of board characteristics(namely board size, the number of independent directors, CEO duality, and female board representation) on sustainability disclosure, measured through economic, environmental, and social disclosures in accordance with the guidelines of the Global Reporting Initiative, while controlling for financial leverage and firm size. To achieve this objective, secondary data were collected from the annual financial reports of listed companies in Arab financial markets that issue sustainability reports, available on the official websites of the companies or the respective markets. The sample comprised 124 firms over the period 2020–2024, yielding 620 firm-year observations. Using Eviews 10, and after verifying the required assumptions including the ratio of observations to variables, outliers, multicollinearity, normality, linearity, homoscedasticity, and independence of residuals; the results revealed a significant positive effect of independent directors, female representation, and firm size on economic disclosure. Board size, independent directors, female representation, and firm size also had a significant positive effect on environmental disclosure. Finally, board size, female representation, and firm size positively influenced social disclosure.
Forecasting Tourism Indicators In Syria Using A Bootstrap ARIMA Model
The study aims to forecast tourism indicators in Syria, represented by the number of tourists, tourist nights, and tourism revenues, using annual data for the period 2000–2023 obtained from publications of the Central Bureau of Statistics. The research adopts a quantitative analytical approach within a time-series modeling and forecasting framework. Phillips–Perron tests indicate that the series are integrated of order one, and accordingly an ARIMA(1,1,1) model is estimated for each indicator. Model adequacy is evaluated through diagnostic checks for autocorrelation, residual distribution, and heteroskedasticity, and the results are satisfactory. Forecasting performance is strengthened using residual bootstrap with 1,000 resamples to generate an empirical distribution of forecasts and construct 95% confidence intervals. Forecasts for 2024–2029 suggest a gradual recovery of the sector, with uncertainty explicitly quantified by the 95% confidence bands. Over the forecast horizon, the number of tourists ranges between 2,082,500 and 3,197,000, with an uncertainty width of about 735 thousand in 2024 increasing to 834 thousand in 2029. The results provide a quantitative tool to support decision-makers and investors in capacity planning, marketing strategies, and expected-return assessment.
Heterogeneity in the Effects of Investment Growth and Public Expenditure Growth across Syrian Economic Growth Levels Using a Quantile Regression Approach
The study measures how the effects of investment growth and public expenditure growth vary across different levels of Syrian economic growth over 1971–2022 using a quantile regression framework. It argues that fiscal and investment elasticities may differ between low, median, and high growth regimes. Descriptive statistics and time-series plots indicate pronounced volatility and departures from normality. Series properties are then assessed using Phillips–Perron unit root tests with variable-specific deterministic components, confirming stationarity at levels and enabling direct model estimation. A symmetry test rejects coefficient symmetry around the median, implying that the effectiveness of public spending and investment differs between the lower and upper tails of the growth distribution. At the 0.10 quantile, both public expenditure growth and investment growth display positive and statistically significant associations with economic growth, consistent with stronger policy effectiveness during low-growth conditions and recovery phases. At the 0.90 quantile, public expenditure growth remains positive and significant, whereas the effect of investment growth becomes statistically insignificant, suggesting that supply constraints, financing frictions, and implementation bottlenecks reduce the marginal growth return of investment under high-growth states.
The Effect of applying knowledge acquired from technical education in enhancing the competitiveness of small and medium enterprises A field study on projects implemented by graduates of the Faculty of Applied Sciences at Latakia University
This study aims to examine the Effect of applying knowledge acquired from technical education on enhancing the competitiveness of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). A field study was conducted on a sample of 83 graduates from the Applied Sciences College at Latakia University, selected using simple random sampling. The research adopted a descriptive–analytical approach and employed a structured questionnaire to collect primary data. Validity and reliability tests, simple linear regression, and one-way ANOVA were performed using SPSS (Version 25). The findings revealed a strong and statistically significant effect of applying acquired knowledge on enhancing SME competitiveness. The analysis of differences based on project type indicated that industrial and service projects were more capable of utilizing acquired knowledge and achieving higher levels of competitiveness, whereas technical projects ranked relatively lower. Additionally, the analysis of differences based on academic specialization showed that specializations with a highly applied nature—such as automotive mechanics and mechanical manufacturing—achieved higher levels of knowledge application and competitiveness enhancement compared to more theoretical or less practically oriented specializations, such as electrical power and communications technology.
The Impact of Capital Structure on the Profitability (An Empirical Study on the Banks Listed on Damascus Stock Exchange)
The research aimed to study the impact of capital structure on profitability, with application to banks listed on the Damascus Securities Exchange. The research sample included 11 banks, with 143 observations during the period from 2011 to 2023. The research addressed bank profitability as a dependent variable, measured by return on equity, and capital structure as an independent variable, measured by debt-to-total-assets ratio and debt-to-total-equity ratio. Size was controlled as a limiting variable. The results showed no statistically significant effect of the debt-to-total-assets ratio on return on equity before adjusting for the size variable, and continued to show no effect after adjusting for the size variable. While the results showed an inverse effect of the debt-to-total-equity ratio on return on equity before adjusting for size, there was no statistically significant effect of the debt-to-total-equity ratio on return on equity after adjusting for the size variable in banks listed on the Damascus Securities Exchange.
US-China Rivalry on the Korean Peninsula The Economic and Political Dimensions
This research examines the escalating rivalry between the United States of America and the People's Republic of China on the Korean Peninsula, focusing specifically on the economic and political dimensions. The study aims to analyze the nature of this competition, its tools, and its impact on regional stability, both regarding North Korea (nuclear file and sanctions) and South Korea (security and economic alliances). The study hypothesizes that the economic and political refinery between Washington and Beijing deepens the Korean division and complicates regional conflict resolution, transforming the peninsula into a geopolitical arena for polarization. It also highlights American strategies aimed to containing Chinese influence, in contrast to China’s efforts to strengthen its political and economic presence in the region. The research employs an analytical approach to understand how the two great powers utilize their trade, investment, military, and diplomatic tools to advance their influence at the expense of the other. It concludes that the Korean Peninsula represents a pivotal strategic arena for competition between Washington and Beijing, impacting regional security and international balances, and that this competition is not merely a struggle for influence but a fundamental factor shaping the security and economic dynamics for Northeast Asia.
Study of the quality of services provided at Latakia Hospital in Latakia (Field Study)
The objective of this research is to conduct an analytical study of the quality of healthcare services provided at Latakia Hospital, focusing on both the quality of services delivered by doctors and nurses, as well as the medical staff's ability to provide services related to privacy, comfort, cleanliness, and nutrition. Subsequently, the study aims to evaluate this quality and explore mechanisms for its improvement. The researcher employed a descriptive analytical methodology to describe the study variables, with the research population consisting of all patients at Latakia University Hospital. A questionnaire was administered to 60 patients, with 40 responding, all of whom received treatment at this hospital. It is noteworthy that this sample was a simple random sample, selected randomly from the aforementioned population. The research findings indicate a deficiency in the quality of healthcare services provided to patients at Latakia Hospital, as assessed through each dimension of service, namely tangibility, reliability, responsiveness, empathy, safety, and trust.
The Effect of Free Cash Flow on Firm Value with the Moderating Role of Dividend Policy (An Empirical Study on a Sample Industrial Companies Listed in Arab Gulf Markets)
The objective of the study is to determine the impact of free cash flow on firm value and the moderating effect of dividend policy. The application was conducted on 55 industrial companies listed in Gulf financial markets during 2019-2023. Data were collected from the published financial reports of companies under study, and analyzed using Eviews 13. firm value was examined as a dependent variable, measured by the Price-to-Book Value (PBV) ratio. Free cash flow was used as an independent variable, measured by the ratio of the difference between operating activities and capital expenditures to total assets. Dividend policy was treated as a moderating variable, measured by the (DPR) ratio. The results revealed that free cash flow has a significant and positive impact on the value of industrial companies listed in Gulf Arab market. In contrast, dividend policy showed no significant effect – either directly or through its interaction with free cash flow, indicating its limited role in influencing firm value within examined sample. This highlights the need to focus on more impactful financial indicators.
The Readiness of Auditors in Syria to Adopt Artificial Intelligence Techniques in External Auditing: An Exploratory Study
The study aimed to explore the level of readiness of auditors in Syria to adopt artificial intelligence technologies through the dimensions represented by (digital and accounting knowledge, technical skills, technical infrastructure, organizational and professional readiness) in external audit offices and companies operating in Syria. A questionnaire consisting of 20 items was designed and distributed to Syrian external auditors. The researcher received 216 questionnaires, of which 205 were deemed valid for analysis, representing an 82% response rate. The results showed that the readiness of Syrian auditors to adopt AI technologies remains low across all studied dimensions, indicating a gap between the auditors' current capabilities and the requirements of digital transformation in the auditing field. The results of the variance analysis also showed a significant effect of several personal and professional characteristics on the level of readiness of auditors, particularly experience, age and academic qualification. The results indicate that factors related to human capital represent the most prominent determinant of the variation in the level of readiness among individuals.
The effect of sales activation on the consumer's purchasing decision (Field study on the General Cotton Thread Company in Latakia)
The study aimed primarily to determine the effect of stimulating sales with its programs (free samples, competitions, coupons) on the purchasing decision of consumers of the General Cotton Thread Company in Lattakia. The researcher followed the descriptive analytical approach in his study, and a set of methods, including relying on secondary and primary data through a questionnaire that was designed and distributed to (100) respondents, of which (95) were retrieved. (90) Questionnaires were suitable for analysis, and the research community consisted of consumers. The General Cotton Thread Company in Lattakia, then the SPSS program was relied upon as a tool to analyze the available data. The results showed that the consumer does not seek to buy products that offer free gifts, the consumer does not attract free samples within the company, and the consumer does not increase his purchases if the competition requires a minimum level of participation in it. The results of the ANOVA analysis to test the significance of the regression showed that the value of sig (0.00), which is smaller than 0.01. Therefore, we reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis, which is that the multiple regression is significant, therefore there is an effect of the independent variables on the dependent, and we can predict the variable through these independent variables.
Alternatives and challenges for European energy security in light of the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war
European energy security was exposed to serious repercussions as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war. This war led to a rise in energy prices, especially oil and natural gas, and also to a shortage of supplies to European countries, which exacerbated the energy crisis in Europe and the difficulty of securing the needs of European countries, especially with regard to securing domestic gas. Therefore Europe resorted to searching for new sources of energy, as several alternatives emerged, including reaching new suppliers and also trying to activate new lines and paths to transport energy to Europe In addition to focusing on activating renewable energies, including solar energy and wind energy, these alternatives were hindered by several obstacles, including the fear of activating new energy paths, especially by the countries through which these lines pass, for fear of the consequences of activating these paths and their impact on international relations, and also the weakness of the capabilities of new exporters. Which makes achieving these alternatives difficult in the current period.
Administrative Accountability as a Mechanism to Combat Administrative Corruption: A Case Study of the Syrian Arab Republic 2004-2018
The aim of this research is to shed light on the concept of administrative accountability, which is a means of controlling administrative work and achieving efficiency and effectiveness. It also aims to determine the nature of the relationship between administrative accountability and administrative corruption by examining the relationship between the two variables in Syria based on the values ​​of the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), which reflects the level of administrative corruption, and the values ​​of the Accountability Index (AII), one of the sub-indices of the Governance Index. This study aims to identify the role of administrative accountability in reducing administrative corruption, determine the level of administrative accountability practice, determine the level of administrative corruption in Syria. The descriptive approach was used to address the general framework of administrative accountability and administrative corruption, and the analytical approach was used to study relationships and test hypotheses. Based on the Governance Index, the research concluded that administrative accountability is low and not practiced seriously in Syria. The level of administrative corruption gradually increased starting in 2004, reaching its highest level in 2018, according to the Corruption Perceptions Index. Furthermore, a strong, significant inverse relationship was found between administrative accountability and the level of administrative corruption in Syria after conducting a simple linear regression test.
ing the Value Relevance of Information Related to Oil and Gas Reserves Through Its Impact on the Stock Prices of Integrated Oil and Gas Companies (An Empirical Study)
This research aimed to study the value relevance of information related to oil and gas reserves, specifically changes in the quantity of oil and gas reserves and the value relevance of the reserve replacement ratio. It also examined the value relevance of traditional financial indicators, namely net income and book value of equity, by analyzing the impact of these variables on the share price of the companies under study. The study sample consisted of 15 integrated oil and gas companies ranked among the top 100 companies by market capitalization, according to Companies Market Cap, after excluding companies that do not adhere to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), during the period from 2017 to 2023. The necessary data for the research were collected from the annual reports and official websites of these companies. The researcher used the quantitative analytical method, and applied panel data regression models based on the model of Ohlson (1995) and used the fully corrected least squares method in the Eviews 12 statistical program. The research concluded that there is a statistically significant effect of the variables of net income, book value of equity, change in the quantity of oil and gas reserves and the reserve replacement ratio on the share price of integrated oil and gas companies, and all of these variables have a positive effect on the share price.
The Impact of Government Expenditure on the Development of the Agricultural Sector in Syria
This study aims to examine the impact of government agricultural expenditure on the development of the agricultural sector in Syria during the period (2000_2019). The research investigates the relationship between government spending and its components, and their effect on both agricultural production and agricultural investment. To achieve this objective, the analytical descriptive method was adopted to analyze the theoretical framework, while the applied analytical approach was employed to estimate the long-run and short-run relationships using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag) ARDL) model, based on annual data obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics. The empirical results revealed a long-run equilibrium relationship between government expenditure and both agricultural production and agricultural investment, with a statistically significant effect at the 0.05 level. The findings indicated that government spending has a positive and clear impact on agricultural output and investment. The error correction model showed that the agricultural sector adjusts quickly to restore equilibrium, with a speed of adjustment estimated at 1.24 for agricultural output and 1.34 for agricultural investment.The statistical diagnostic tests confirmed the absence of econometric problems such as autocorrelation and multicollinearity, which validates the reliability and robustness of the model .
Measuring the Impact of Intellectual Capital components on Financial Distress for Financial Firms (Applied Study of Banks Listed on the Damascus Securities Exchange)
This study aimed to:1. Measure the efficiency level of intellectual capital components in Syrian private conventional banks.2. Assess the degree of exposure of Syrian private conventional banks to financial distress risks according to the Altman model.3. Examine the impact of intellectual capital components on financial distress in Syrian conventional banks. The research adopted a descriptive-analytical approach, utilizing panel data analysis to measure the effect of intellectual capital components on financial distress in Syrian conventional banks. The study covered a time series from 2011 to 2023, with data sourced from disclosures listed on the Damascus Securities Exchange. The sample included all 11 listed private conventional banks. The results revealed a statistically significant impact of **human capital** on Altman's financial distress model. In contrast, **structural capital**, **physical capital**, and **relational capital** showed no statistically significant effects on financial distress.
Measuring Cost Efficiency by Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) -Empirical Study on Private Traditional Banks Operating in Syria-
This research aims to measure the cost efficiency of traditional private banks operating in Syria during the period extending from 2011-Q1 to 2024-Q4. Cost efficiency was measured by using the parametric stochastic frontier (SFA) method, after determining the banking inputs and outputs through the intermediation approach, and after performing centered transformation on the studied variables, the Translog cost function model was estimated using Stata.17, the result showed that the financing price and credit facilities constitute the most important variables in terms of contribution to the total cost of banks. And the average cost efficiency for banks during the studied period was 54%. by studying the regression of the efficiency on time, it was found that the efficiency has no time effect during the studied period The results also showed that the Arab Bank-Syria is the bank was the best performance in the sample, while the Ahli Trust Bank was the least efficient among the studied banks.
The Repercussions Of Artificial Intelligence On International Relations “The United States Of America As A Model”
The rapid technical development in the world has led to major transformations in international systems and the framework of international relations, to the point that many of the basic terms and concepts within the framework of international law have changed, such as the concept of state sovereignty, power, security, etc. Accordingly, the status of countries is determined by the extent to which they possess artificial intelligence technologies and keep pace with developments in this field, which means a competitive race between the great powers to prove their presence in the international arena and impose their control over the world. This research aimed to define the conceptual framework of artificial intelligence and explain the history of its emergence, in addition to explaining the development of many details while revealing the existence of a relationship between artificial intelligence on the one hand and international relations on the other hand, He also discussed the race taking place between the United States of America and other developed countries to possess artificial intelligence technologies. The research relied on the descriptive and analytical approach, and reached a set of results, the most prominent of which is the existence of a legislative deficiency in the provisions of international law that must be corrected so that the concerned authorities can prosecute the perpetrator of the crime using artificial intelligence techniques, as it is a cross-border crime, whatever it may be. In addition to proving the ability of the United States of America to predict risks and how it can manage its foreign policy and build its international relations with the surrounding world through artificial intelligence systems.
An Analytical Study of the Effect of Per Capita GDP and Unemployment Rate on the Human Development Index in Syria During the Period (2008-2022)
The research aims to study and analyze the effect of per capita GDP and unemployment rate on the Human Development Index in Syria during the period of time from (2008-2022), with a focus on the components of the Human Development Index: health, education, and per capita income. The research used the multiple regression analysis method to estimate the relationship between the two independent variables (per capita GDP and unemployment rate) and the dependent variable (Human Development Index), and attempted to model this relationship based on time series data extending between the years (2008-2022), taken from the data of the Central Bureau of Statistics in Syria, and the human development reports issued by the United Nations Development Program. The available data were analyzed using the SPSS V.25 program. The research reached the following results: 1- The Syrian citizen lost more than half of his nominal monthly income during the period (2008-2022). 2- The unemployment rate in Syria increased from 10.2% in 2008 to 23.7% in 2022. 3- The Human Development Index declined in Syria from 0.657 points in 2008 to 0.577 points in 2022, as a result of the decline in the value of its three components during the study period. 4- There is a significant effect of GDP per capita and the unemployment rate on the Human Development Index in Syria.
The Evolution of Neutrality Strategies as a Tool for Influencing International Relations A Comparative Analytical Study of the Sultanate of Oman's Experience and Selected International Models And the Possibility of Implementing It in Syria
This study aims to analyze the evolution of the concept of neutrality in international relations as a strategic tool for conflict management and enhancing state stature, with a focus on the Omani experience in comparison with selected international models (Switzerland, Austria, Ireland, Costa Rica), and explores its Potential application in Syria. The study adopted descriptive-analytical and comparative approaches, using SWOT analysis to assess strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in each model. It also employed the case study methodology for the Omani experience, analyzing policies and legislative frameworks supporting neutrality policy. The findings reveal that neutrality has evolved from a passive stance based on non-intervention to a dynamic, positive, and effective strategy, with the addition of a digital dimension reflecting contemporary technological challenges, which has become a fundamental requirement for sovereignty in cyberspace. The Omani experience demonstrated remarkable flexibility in adapting to regional crises, earning it a credible mediator role trusted by all international and regional parties. In the Syrian case, the study concludes that adopting a hybrid dynamic neutrality model, inspired by Oman and benefiting from international best practices, could represent a realistic path for reconstruction, national reconciliation, and international reintegration, provided there is strong political will, robust institutions, and a supportive environment. The study recommends a "dual-track model" integrating internal reform and external diplomacy, emphasizing the importance of the digital dimension in contemporary neutrality strategy.
Predicting Gold Price using the PTR Model
This study aimed to investigate the nonlinear relationship between independent variables (inflation rate, interest rates and exchange rate) in Syria, using panel data analysis. The study estimated the inflation threshold and the interest rates for the period from 2011 to 2023, in order to understand how these thresholds, affect the prices of 21 karat gold grams. The number of potential thresholds in the model was determined, then the homogeneity of the cross-sectional time series data was verified using the Hsiao test, then study the stationarity of the panel using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the Phillips-Perron (PP) test, and their significance was tested. Within the framework of these results, the Panel Threshold Regression (PTR) model was estimated. The study found that the inflation threshold was 0.17%, the threshold for long-term loan interest rates was 12.66%, the threshold for medium-term loan interest rates was 13.54% and the threshold for exchange rate was 436.5. The results indicated a significant negative effect of the exchange rate and positive effect of the inflation threshold on the prices of gold grams both before and after the threshold level.
The effectiveness of Gamma Distribution compared to Exponential Distribution In estimating the death and survival probabilities for two genders
The article aims to compare the effectiveness of Exponential Distribution (with one parameter) and Gamma Distribution (with two parameters) in estimating the death and survival probabilities for two gender (male and female),and it determines probability Cumulative Functions for both distributions, and estimates its parameters by using The Moments Method, It evaluates the suitability for both distributions by using (Kolmogorov-Smirnov) test , PPplots, and the Sum of Square Errors (SSE). To compare the Models, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) has been used. The study was concluded that Gamma Distribution is the best of this estimation process and more suitable for modeling death and survival probabilities, according to the models used in this study
Forecasting Using a Hybrid Model (NNAR) for Industrial Employment and Industrial Imports in Syria: An Indicative Study for the Period 2022–2027
This study aims to analyze the reality and trends of selected indicators of the Syrian industrial sector, represented by the number of workers in the industrial sector and the volume of industrial imports, during the period (2000–2021), and to test the efficiency of the Neural Network Autoregressive (NNAR) model in forecasting their future trends under conditions of short time series and structural instability. The study adopts a descriptive–analytical approach supported by quantitative analysis and statistical forecasting methods. Historical trends of the studied variables are analyzed, followed by the construction of an NNAR model to generate forecasted values for the period (2022–2027). The results show that industrial employment experienced a growth phase before 2011, followed by a sharp contraction and then a limited gradual recovery. Industrial imports were characterized by instability with a relative downward tendency in recent years. The findings indicate that the NNAR model shows acceptable forecasting efficiency, suggesting an upward trend in industrial employment in contrast to a downward trend in industrial imports during the forecasting period.
The Effect of Competitiveness on the Profitability of Syrian Private Banks: An Empirical Study Using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL)
This research aimed to test the effect of competitiveness on the profitability of Syrian banks during the period (2009- 2024), the competitiveness was measured using Panzar & Rosse approach (PR) as nonstructural measure, the Banking concentration ratio of the top four banks in relation to total loans (CR4l), Herfindahl Hircshman index in relation to total deposits (HHId) as structural measures, while Profitability was measured using retune on assets (ROA), Earning Per Share. To achieve the research goal, quarterly data was used, and ARDL approach was applied. The research concluded that there is positive and significant effect of competitiveness measured by (PR) on the profitability in the long term, and negative and significant effect in the short term. there is also positive and significant effect of competitiveness measured by (CR4l) on the Profitability in the long term, as for its effect in the short term, It’s negative. while competitiveness when measured by the (HHId) index, had negative effect on profitability in the long term, and positive effect in the short term.