Estimating the Volume of Capital Flight from Syria Using the Residual Method During the Period 1997–2017

Authors

  • Muhannad Alsaleh PhD Student, Department Of Banking and Financial Sciences, Economy Faculty, Latakia University (Formerly Tishreen), Latakia, Syria
  • Linda Ismaiel Professor, Department of Banking and Financial Sciences, Economy Faculty, Latakia University (Formerly Tishreen), Latakia, Syria.

Keywords:

Capital Flight – Residual Method – External Debt – Foreign Investment – Foreign Reserves.

Abstract

This study aims to estimate the magnitude of capital flight from Syria during the period (1997–2017) using the World Bank residual method, and to conduct a comparative analysis between two phases: the pre-crisis period (1997–2010) and the crisis period (2011–2017). The study relies on official data covering external debt, foreign direct investment, the current account, and foreign reserves.

The results reveal a structural shift in the behavior of capital flows, as the pre-crisis period was characterized by relatively inward capital flows, whereas the crisis period witnessed a sharp increase in capital flight, with an average exceeding 11 billion USD annually, peaking in 2011 and 2012. This can be attributed to political and economic instability and heightened uncertainty during this period.

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Published

2026-08-18

Issue

Vol. 48 No. 3 (2026): Latakia University (formerly Tishreen)Journal for Research and Scientific Studies - Economic and Legal Sciences Series

Section

ِArticle

How to Cite

Estimating the Volume of Capital Flight from Syria Using the Residual Method During the Period 1997–2017. (2026). Latakia University (formerly Tishreen)Journal for Research and Scientific Studies - Economic and Legal Sciences Series, 48(3), 437-452. https://journal.latakia-univ.edu.sy/index.php/econ/article/view/21595