A Study On The Impact Of Green Growth Orientation On Economic Growth Rate In China Using The ARDL Model

Abstract

The objective of this study is to examine the impact of the transition toward green growth on the rate of economic growth in the People’s Republic of China. Eleven independent variables were employed, derived from the Green Growth Report (GGGI) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) report. These include, among others, the proportion of the population benefiting from safely managed drinking water services, the proportion of the population benefiting from safely managed sanitation services, the share of renewable energy in total final energy consumption, primary energy intensity, and domestic material consumption (DMC) per unit of GDP. The dependent variable is the economic growth rate of GDP.

 The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was applied to test the research hypothesis. The findings indicate that four variables exert significant effects on GDP growth. Specifically, the proportion of the population benefiting from safely managed sanitation services exhibits a positive long-run relationship with GDP growth, while both renewable energy share and the Red List Index demonstrate negative long-run relationships with GDP growth. Primary energy intensity, however, shows a positive effect at certain lags. In the short run, the results reveal a significant positive effect of sanitation services, whereas renewable energy and the Red List Index exert negative effects, with primary energy intensity displaying a positive impact in some short-run periods.