An Analytical Study of the Effect of the Gap Between Income and Agreement on the Consumption of the Syrian Family During the Period 2000-2022

Abstract

The goal of the research is to estimate the gap between income and spending in Syria during the period 2000-2022, by relying on a scientific approach based on the idea of ​​a long-term balance between income (GDP GDP) and spending (total government and family spending), and then testing its impact on the consumption of the Syrian family.

The research relied on an analytical methodology that aims to estimate the gap between income and spending in Syria during the period 2000-2022. GDP data (GDP) was used as an income alternative, while government and family spending was used to represent spending. To estimate the relationship between the two variables in the long term, the error correction model (ECM) has been used, as it expresses the difference between income and spending as a measure of the gap, and the stability tests of time chains were relied using the ADF-Fisher test, and the Granger Sabbiya test to determine the causal relationship between the two variables. Data is analyzed using EVIEWS. 12.

The results of the study of the gap between income and spending in Syria during the period from 2000 to 2022 showed the presence of a long -term relationship between this gap and the consumption of the family, as the increase in the gap between income and spending by one unit increases the family consumption by 0.145828 units. This effect indicates that the Syrian families tend to adjust their spending to reduce the gap in the long term, and that 88.5% of any deviation from the level of balance in the long term is correct during the next period. The potential explanation for this result is that the Syrian families may resort to borrowing or to withdraw savings to finance this difference, which leads to an increase in spending in the short term.