تغيرات الحرارة والأمطار في اللاذقية وكسب وصلنفة خلال الفترة 2011-1978
Abstract
نظراً لأهمية التغيرات المناخية وتأثيراتها الكبيرة والمتزايدة على الأنظمة البيئية والبشرية المختلفة، فإنه من الضروري دراسة وفهم هذه التغيرات. يهدف هذا البحث إلى معرفة اتجاه ومقدار التغير الحاصل في درجة الحرارة وكمية الأمطار خلال الفترة 2011-1978 في اللاذقية، كسب وصلنفة. تم ذلك من خلال التحليل السنوي والفصلي والشهري لكمية الأمطار ومتوسط درجة الحرارة، والتي أظهرت ارتفاعا معنويا لمتوسط درجة الحرارة السنوية في المناطق الثلاث وارتفاعا فصليا معنويا باستثاء شتاء اللاذقية وصلنفة وخريف اللاذقية. أما الأمطار السنوية فكانت تغيراتها غير معنوية، بينما تزايدت الأمطار الفصلية معنوياً في شتاء صلنفة وتناقصت معنوياً في شتاء كسب. وبعد تقسيم مدة الدراسة لفترتين متساويتين1995-1978،2011-1995 ومقارنة الفترة الثانية بالأولى تبين مايلي: وجود زيادة معنوية للحرارة السنوية في كافة المناطق، عدم معنوية تغيرات الأمطار السنوية والفصلية، بلغت أعلى زيادة معنوية في درجات الحرارة الشهرية في اللاذقية، كسب، وصلنفة +1.8، +2.9، +1.5 خلال أشهر أيلول، آب، وأيار على التوالي. أما الجفاف السنوي فقد أظهر اتجاهاً متزايداً في كل من اللاذقية وكسب ومتناقصاً في صلنفة.
Due to the importance of climate changes and their strong and increasing influences on different human and ecological systems, It is necessary to study and understand these changes. This research aims to determine the direction and magnitude of the change in temperatures and rainfall trend during 1978-2011 in Latakia, Kasaab and Slenfeh. The study has been done through the analysis of annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall amount and temperature average, which showed a significant increasing in the average annual temperature in the three regions and significant seasonally increasing except for Winter in Latakia and Slenfeh, Autumn in Latakia. But the annual rainfall changes were non- significant, while seasonally rainfall increased significantly in Slenfeh Winter and decreased in Kasaab Winter. After dividing the entire study duration into two equal periods 1978-1995, 1995-2011 and comparing the second period with the first one, we found a significant increasing in the average annual temperature in the three regions,
non- significant in the annual and seasonal rainfall changes. The highest significant in seasonal temperature in Latakia, Kasaab and Slenfeh reached +1.5, +2.9, +1.8 during September, August، and May respectively. While the annual drought showed increased trend in Latakia and kasaab and decreased one in Slenfeh.
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