تأثير الأحوال الجوية على إنتاجية القمح الربيعي في سورية
Abstract
تزايدت إنتاجية القمح القاسي وبلغ معدلها خلال فترة الدراسة في مناطق الحسكة وحمص وحلب (1601.25 ، 1574 ، 1283.29) كغ/هكتار مع معامل تغير بلغ (51.45% ، 58.53% ، 65.21%) على التوالي مما يشير إلى أفضل استقرارية للإنتاج في الحسكة تليها حمص ثم حلب. إن نتائج معادلات الانحدار التي تجلت بوجود ارتباط قوي ظهر من خلال القيم العالية لمعامل الارتباط حيث تراوحت بين (0.94 وحتى 0.96) مع درجات معنوية قوية عند المستويين (1% و5%) ، تؤكد التأثير المثبت إحصائيا للعناصر الميتيورولوجية المدروسة على إنتاجية القمح القاسي(سلبياً كان أو إيجابياً) في محافظات الحسكة وحلب وحمص خلال المواسم الزراعية الممتدة من 1974/ 1975وحتى 2000/2001 .كما جرى تحديد انحراف الإنتاجية الحقيقية عن الإنتاجية المحسوبة كنسبة مئوية خلال سنوات الدراسة المختلفة لكل منهما .
من خلال دراسة اتجاه تغير الإنتاجية جرى ترتيب السنوات الملائمة والسنوات غير الملائمة لإنتاجية القمح في المناطق الثلاث استنادا إلى قيم حصة ظروف الطقس (%x ∆±) والتي تم تقسيمها إلى خمس مستويات من الملاءمة.
The average rate of hard wheat Productivity increased during the studying period in EL Hassakeh, Homs and Aleppo to reach (1601.25, 1574,1283.29) kg/ha, toghther CV% in (51.45%,58.53%,65.21%) respectively, that indicates that a Stability in EL Hassakeh is better than Homs and latter Aleppo.
The results of average decrease manifested in high values, ranging between 0.94 – 0.96 and 1-5% confirms the effect statistically proven of meteorology an hand wheat productivity, negative and positive in Hassakeh, Aleppo and Homs in the agricultural season of 1974 / 1975 to 2000/2001. Moreover the real productive ratio as compared with the calculated one was defined in percentage terms during the years of study.
Analysis of the change in productivity direction led to classification of years as convenient or in convenient based on share of meterological conditions (±Dx%) in the three areas five level of conveniency were identified.
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