Syrian Apple Exports: Analysis of Competitiveness, Demand Determinants, and Forecasting of Exported Quantities During the Period 2006-2024

Abstract

The research aims to study the competitive capabilities and the factors influencing the demand for Syrian apple crop in global markets, and to forecast the exported quantities. To achieve the research objectives, econometric analysis methods, competitiveness indicators, and the Box-Jenkins methodology for forecasting were employed, based on secondary data published by official sources such as the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and Trade Map. The results showed, during the period (2006–2024), that apples enjoy a clear competitive and price advantage in global markets, still maintaining a clear comparative and price advantage despite its decline in recent years, Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia were identified as the most important importing markets for Syrian apples. The results also showed that export prices play a fundamental role in determining demand for Syrian apples in importing markets. The differences in the impact of income across the studied markets also indicate a variation in consumption patterns and demand characteristics. The expected future trends point to a continued gradual decline in export quantities until 2030 (10,049.77 tons), which calls for pricing policies, market diversification, and improvement of export infrastructure to enhance competitiveness.