Horizon Scanning as a Strategic Approach for Sustainable and Precision Forest Management: Towards Smart Forests in Syria

Abstract

This study aims to explore the vital role of Horizon Scanning (HS) as an advanced foresight tool to ensure resilience in sustainable forest management under accelerating climate challenges by leveraging technological advancements. The research analyzed Landsat and Sentinel-2 time-series data via Google Earth Engine (GEE) for the Fronloq Reserve in Latakia (2010–2026) to monitor "weak signals" of degradation and "emerging signals" of recovery.  

Results demonstrated the effectiveness of (HS) in transforming spectral data into quantitative indicators, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NDVI analysis revealed that 7.19% of the reserve suffers from severe degradation (weak signals) requiring immediate intervention, while 22.95% showed significant natural recovery (positive emerging signals). A SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) was conducted to assess the feasibility of adopting this approach in Syria, highlighting strengths such as expert personnel and existing institutional frameworks, alongside opportunities to bridge digital and economic gaps through free, open-source technologies

The study proposes a framework for transitioning toward precision and agile management, leading to the "Smart Forests 2050" vision in Syria to balance biodiversity conservation with sustainable development.