Econometric analysis of potato production functions in Tartous Governorate using the dynamic Nerlov model

Abstract

The research aimed to study the reality of potato cultivation and production in Tartous Governorate and estimate potato production functions using the Nerlov Dynamic Model. The research relied on data from agricultural statistical collections (2000-2023), which were analyzed using descriptive analytical methods and standard methods using the R statistical programming language.

The results showed that average production reached 40,578 tons, an increase of 12.25% compared to 2000. Meanwhile, productivity declined to 24,115 kg/ha, a decrease of 40.2%, reflecting poor resource utilization efficiency. The price index increased by more than 34,800%, impacting market stability. The results of the dynamic Nerlov model showed that past production had a positive and significant effect (coefficient = 0.67, p<0.01), while both past price (coefficient = -16.67, p<0.01) and past productivity (coefficient = -1.68, p<0.05) had a negative effect. The model's explanatory power reached R² = 88.9%, demonstrating its suitability for studying agricultural supply dynamics. The study recommended supporting farmers with appropriate production inputs and improving cultivation and storage techniques to enhance production stability.